On this website, the Centre for High-Performance Scientitifc Computing in Terrestrial Systems (HPSC-TerrSys) in collaboration with the project "Digital Geosystem-Rhineland Region" (DG-RR) publishes daily 10-day forecasts from simulations with the multi-physics, coupled Terrestrial Systems Modelling Platform (TSMP).

The main goal of these simulations is to monitor and forecast states and fluxes of the terrestrial hydrological cycle from regional to continental scales from shallow aquifers via the land surface into the atmosphere. Results from these model simulations are used, e.g., in projects such as ADAPTER to derive user-informed, applicable products for agriculture. In addition, these simulations help us to develop our modelling system further.

The TSMP model system is run in a one-way off-line double-nest where the outer EURO-CORDEX compatible EUR-11 12km model domain is driven by atmospheric lateral boundary conditions from the HRES forecasts kindly provided provided by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The inner model domain covers an area of 150km x 150km at 1km (atmosphere) and 0.5km (land surface and subsurface) encompassing southern North-Rhine Westphalia ("NRW domain") and some parts of the Rhineland-Palatinate in Germany, as well as parts of Luxembourg, Belgium and The Netherlands.

We do one forecast per day, initialized at 00UTC, with a lead time of 10 days. Model results are provided at hourly intervals (where applicable) per variable or diagnostic through a rolling archive (images are overwritten with each new forecast) as individual images (click on the frames to open the visualisations, click or right click on the images to download) and movies (see player controls underneath each plot). For the high-resolution 1km/0.5km model domain a "radar correction" run is done before any new high resolution NRW domain forecast is initialized; here the precipitation fields are replaced by the meteorological radar derived RADOLAN data product of the the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) to correct for potential biases in the precipitation fields of the atmospheric model and to ensure realistic sub-surface (soil moisture) initial conditions for the next forecast cycle.

The simulations are performed at the Jülich Supercomputing Centre (JSC), Germany in collaboration with the Simulation Laboratory Terrestrial Systems (SimLab TerrSys).

Details on the model setup can be found, e.g., in Shrestha et al. (2014, Mon Weather Rev), Gasper et al. (2014, Geosci Model Dev), Keune et al. (2016, J Geophys Res), Kollet et al. (2018, WATER).

Usage: Any model results and derived visualisation, analysis, diagnostic or dataset is provided under a Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0) License.

Acknowledgements: If you use any visualisation from this website please provide the following source: "www.terrsysmp.org/Forschungszentrum Jülich (IBG-3, Agrosphere) and Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems".

Terms uf use: TSMP monitoring and forecasting results, data, visualisations, analyses, diagnostics, derived information products are provided "as is", without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to the warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose and noninfringement. In no event shall the providers or copyright holders be liable for any claim, damages or other liability, whether in an action of contract, tort or otherwise, arising from, out of or in connection with the model system or any derived piece of information or data or the use or other dealings with the model.

If you want to give us feedback, if you are missing something or if you are interested in working with data from the TSMP forecasts, please send and e-mail to tsmp@fz-juelich.de.

10 days European Forecast, 12km

10 days North-Rhine Westphalia (NRW) Forecast, 1km/0.5km